December 22, 2006

Down To The Last (Cheap) Drop

Back in 1798 Malthus popularized the idea of an impending, catastrophic scarcity of the essentials of life, or at least permanently attached his name to gloomy forecasts. Since then, Malthusians of various stripes have been eager to find evidence of critical scarcity—any scarcity—that might validate their beliefs. In vain. As economists explain, when goods become scarce their prices rise and market forces generate substitutes. All well and good, until now. Petroleum is different: because it makes modern civilization possible, because it exists in relatively well identified, finite quantities, and because for many purposes it has no known substitute (nuclear aircraft don't fly). The idea that oil is going to get scarce, soon, otherwise known as Peak Oil, has been around for decades but only in the last several years has it caught the attention of a significant minority in the energy business. It's difficult, still, to find a non-scientist or non-engineer who can speak clearly to the facts, even more so to find one who can who hasn't become a catastrophist, and next to impossible to combine the above in somebody with sure knowledge of the policy process. So I got lucky, I think, to talk with Tom Whipple, a retired senior CIA analyst, who's not only an expert on energy, particularly petroleum, but who has a big-picture, pragmatic grasp of the problem. Tom talks sense without minimizing the dangers. For more from Tom see his regular column on Peak Oil in the Falls Church News Press and the newsletter he edits for ASPO-USA. His is an important message, please take heed. Total runtime of one hour and six minutes.