Crying Wolf

There's no doubt that over the past ten years the U.S. has been closer to launching a war against Iran at certain times than at others. But my sense of it is that the military and intelligence communities now share a reasonably strong consensus that such a war would be an unmitigated disaster. And I would guess that senior policymakers continue to make that clear to Israel whenever necessary. My sources, to be honest, are pretty much non-existent, but my instincts about such things have always been excellent, and I trust them. Thus I find it disappointing, to say the least, when I see VIPS "warning" for the umpty-umpth time about an imminent war with Iran. Having been consistently wrong on that score for so many years, might VIPS not reconsider some of their speculative starting points? Could they not acknowledge, by now, that crying wolf is not helpful?