Reading the Political Tea Leaves
You're starting to see more than a little muttering around the internet about how Mr. Obama has forgotten about the coalition that elected him. No jobless benefits, no jobs, not much of a recovery for ordinary people. What gives? Why aren't the Democrats even trying for a second stimulus package? Probably the White House is focused on two things. The first, the mainstream media has already identified: Mr. Obama's 'Mayberry Machiavellis' believe that there are more likely voters worried about the deficit than there are about jobs. A corollary is that the boomers are moving right, so the president must move with them. Such assumptions are deeply flawed and fundamentally misleading, but we won't go into the specifics here. The second thing the White House may be thinking remains purely guesswork: Mr. Obama, cynically, may want the Democrats to lose by a substantial margin in November so that in 2012 he'll have a better chance of playing the fear card.
Remember the 1994 mid-term election? The Democrats lost 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats, giving the Republicans a majority in both chambers. But Bill Clinton came back in 1996 to win a second term. He was lucky in that he faced an empty suit like Bob Dole and that Ross Perot, running again as an independent, siphoned off over 8% of the vote. Most importantly, though, Clinton took advantage of House Speaker Newt Gingrich's profound unpopularity. It only took two years, but in modern times it seems an accurate rule of thumb that just as soon as the Republicans take over a part of Congress they rapidly begin losing their support — for the obvious reason that they not only don't have any clue about how to govern but that they have zero interest in governing.
It would be difficult, perhaps impossible, to replicate 1994 exactly, but the essence of it — the threat of Republicans in charge of things — remains a potent talisman. So here's my prediction: Don't look for Mr. Obama to do much for the Democrats between now and November!
Posted by George Kenney on July 9, 2010 7:02 AM 
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Comments
George,
If Obama did that, he would be truly and completely kissing any further cooperation from many Democrats goodbye. I'm not impressed with what he has done, but I think the more he lets himself get backed into a corner, the harder he will fight. I think he really has been far more naive than people give him credit for and hasn't really understood the competing interests of those he thought could be brought together. I think that as he realizes the extent to which he will be on the menu, if he isn't taking charge of writing it, he will come to realize cutting through knots is much easier than untying them.
Otherwise, he is history.
[I hope you're right, John. g.]
Posted by: John Merryman | July 9, 2010 10:03 PM
I think we're just being played. Tighten-up with Bush, loosen-up with Obama, then tighten-up again. As has been noted, there is only one part: money; and it has two heads. They keep useful idiots busy with the "public discussion," but if you'll notice, nothing really changes. Obama essentially extended the really crucial Bush initiatives: the Mid-East presence; the domestic policing of the population; the massive transfer of money and power to the Morgan-Goldman interests. The American booboisie keep looking open-mouthed at the show, while the real action takes place under their noses, but unnoticed. Personally, I see the outlines of the Beast emerging.
Posted by: Connor | July 12, 2010 3:47 PM
I'm with Connor. The question isn't whether Obama is or is not going to do this or that, the question is only how long it will take before the public finally breaks free of its torpor and overturns this plutocratic system of self-destruction.
Posted by: douglain
|
July 12, 2010 8:18 PM
Well, this will likely be another incompetent miscalculation on the President's part.
Clinton, the Republicans wanted to see leave the White House in disgrace. Obama they will want to see in prison.
In the end, no matter how right wing he is, he's still black. Republicans will want to send a message to other black contenders for the top job. Frankly, their base will expect nothing less.
Posted by: pws | July 13, 2010 10:26 AM