Rising Seas
It's new news that satellite measurements indicate significant ice loss from the East Antarctic ice sheet (that's about 2/3 of the Antarctic ice mass). Previous and ongoing measurements show continuing loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet, but it makes sense that if the one is melting the other would be as well. What's interesting here is that you don't need a theory of global warming, per se, or mathematical models of any kind, to reasonably predict what will happen next. Observations alone from the past 100 years and more show steadily rising (warming) seas, melting glaciers and, more recently, loss of Arctic sea ice. The planet is warming up and in a certain practical sense it doesn't really matter why. Straight-line projections from warming seas — that would be most of the numbers in the IPCC report — are of concern for rising sea levels, but the other part of it, the ice-melt (mainly from Greenland and Antarctica), is inherently unpredictable: what we do know is that there is definitely a possibility of dramatic, sudden melt and consequently a dramatic, sudden rise in sea level. I would not be at all surprised at a three meter rise before the end of this century, though I doubt that I'll be around to see it. Anyhow, sooner or later it's going to be Goodbye, Miami!
Posted by George Kenney on November 23, 2009 2:56 PM 
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Comments
A rise in sea level is not related to the ice melting. It is dependent only on the ice falling or sliding off the landmass into the water; sea levels will rise instantly and will not change as the ice melts.
Have you ever seen your cocktail overflow as the ice cubes melt?
[Right, but Tom, when we talk about the ice melting in Greenland and in the Antarctic, that's what we mean. The West Antarctic ice sheet, for example, is losing 132 billion tons of ice a year (according to satellite measurements); and Greenland is losing about 273 billion tons of ice a year. All that ice, to use your cocktail analogy, is being newly dumped into the glass — it isn't previously in the glass. g.]
Posted by: Tom Rudolf | November 27, 2009 11:10 AM
Hello George
Just a comment, "The planet is warming up and in a certain practical sense it doesn't really matter why" is a nice way of pretending that global warming in not caused by humans and feels like you are ignoring the elephant in the room. It's annoying to us outside the USA that even informed commentators dance around the issues as if this one is in any real sense controversial, cause it's just not.
George Kenney call a spade a spade please that's all.
[Your point is well taken. If you search EP for blog posts and podcasts on global warming you'll find plenty of expert evidence for anthropic climate change. g.]
Posted by: james | November 30, 2009 9:20 AM