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INTERMITTENT NOTESXML

From Dubai to Athens

A Greek with the devilOnce Dubai declared itself bust the financial world started looking around for the next sovereign risk crisis. The consensus seems to be it's Greece. Unlike Dubai, however, the Greeks have no UAE to automatically bail them out. The EU seems more concerned about the precedent that a bail out might set than with Greek welfare. The rest of the world, despite alluringly high interest rates on Greek debt, doesn't seem much interested either. An improbable Chinese banker deus ex machina gets mentioned, but if the Chinese are already leery of U.S. debt, why should they want to add Greek bonds to their portfolio? Would they really covet the Elgin Marbles in Beijing? Which leaves Athens two choices: either do as the head of the Greek central bank suggests, enact severe austerity measures, and have a many years long recession, or leave the Eurozone and inflate their way back to health. If it were me, I'd choose the latter.

The situation is worth watching because a Greek decision to embrace recession in the name of fiscal prudence could only encourage similar behavior elsewhere, perhaps even in Washington. On the off-chance that the Greeks decide they're better off going it alone they'll have struck a solid blow against the neo-liberal enterprise for all of us. Moreover, if they insist on sovereignty over internationalism the Greeks would also raise the very real possibility of further defections from the EU.

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Comments


Electric politics rocks!!

Hi George. Hope you have time to relax on your vacation.

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