September 30, 2009
Impossibly Stupid
The health care bill that's destined to emerge from the Senate Finance Committee contains the seeds of destruction for the Democratic Party. Maybe that's a good thing. Evidently many of the Democrats on the Committee, including Chairman Max Baucus ($ - Montana), are too dense to comprehend that forcing all Americans to buy private health insurance is not only not reform, but lays the kindling for massive popular revolt. The American public is still smart enough to know when it's being robbed in broad daylight; to be forced to fork over money to corporate insurance parasites for exactly nothing in return will undoubtedly enrage tens of millions of citizens. To date I haven't seen any serious speculation that the Finance Committee bill as drafted could ever become law but the track record of the Democratic Leadership is so reprehensible that anything is possible. My own guess (and I may well be wrong) is that if Baucus' bill is to be stopped it'll be stopped by progressives in the House who'll vote down a conference report, in which case we very well might not get a darn thing out of this entire 'health care reform' exercise. We'll see. Nothing would still be a much better choice — unless it were the death knell of the Democrats... Out of the ashes we could try again.
September 29, 2009
Soundtrack Pro 3
First, thanks very much to everybody who donated recently to EP — your support has helped, among other things, to pay for upgraded audio software. From the beginning I've been using Apple's Soundtrack Pro which, as the name implies, is for professional use. It's a pretty good tool. When I first got STP Apple sold it as a stand-alone package; later they folded it into the set of programs that make up their Final Cut Studio. Expensive, even to upgrade. I'd already upgraded once, to where I was working with STP 1.5, but that was getting fairly long in the tooth and I figured the latest version might work a little better with Snow Leopard or at least be more suited to the coming transition to 64 bit processing. Also I like to upgrade software regularly even when what I'm using works. But upgrades across a several version spread aren't always easy. The short story is that everything appears, after a fair amount of testing and too many false starts, to work.
Jail the Pervert
With good reason, it's a crime to rape a thirteen year old girl. Dosing her with drugs and alcohol and then raping her is even worse. And worse still, when the rapist is a full-grown adult — in this case, forty four years old. What was he thinking? Roman Polanski has no excuse. In 1977 he pled guilty in a Los Angeles courtroom, then decided after 42 days of court ordered psychiatric evaluation that he didn't trust the judge, so fled the U.S. On the lam ever since Polanski has had it pretty good in Europe. And as with so many celebrity perverts, as was to be expected, the swank set has forgiven him. So what? He's still a criminal, a fugitive, and he deserves to spend some time behind bars. Good for the Swiss for arresting Polanski with the intent of extraditing him to the U.S., and who cares what specifically might have prompted them at this time (belatedly) to do it.
No Favors, Please
With its 14 lanes the Dan Ryan Expressway in Chicago rivals the very worst highways in America, as does its north-side extension the Kennedy Expressway. If you want to drive any distance north or south in Chicago — say, to an airport — odds are you'll be on one of those two roads. Along with most commuters, at all hours. It's possible, indeed, for all 14 lanes to be jammed to a standstill; not so uncommon for them all to be at a crawl. In the almost twenty years since I lived there things could only have gotten worse. Why, then, would any sane Chicagoan wish for the Olympics? Additional construction and congestion would blow the city apart at the seams. It would become absolutely impossible to travel around except on the trains, and passengers would be packed like sardines. Such misery, just to benefit a few building contractors? And yet a majority of Chicagoans seem to favor the city's Olympic bid. Be careful what you wish for...
September 21, 2009
Futility, Defined
So Stanley tells Barack that without a whole lot more combat troops, and a new, improved strategy, the Afghan war is lost. Great. But what Stanley proposes falls well short of a genuinely serious all-out effort; most likely even an all-out effort would fail but it's important to recognize that it's not on the table; nor did Barack, it seems, inquire about worst contingencies. And neither of them have yet to explain the U.S. national interest in Afghanistan. No clear interest, no proven strategy, no workable tactics. Leaving us with zilch.
September 20, 2009
The Goldstone Report
It got obscured in the news cycle last week, but Judge Richard Goldstone's report on Israel's war on Gaza constitutes a critical milestone. I'd been somewhat skeptical regarding Goldstone, given his performance at the ICTY, but within certain parameters he does, deservedly, have a reputation as a straight shooter. And on Gaza he came through. Probably to the amazement and clearly to the great consternation of the Israeli government. It's a pity that the U.S. State Department was so quick to rule out, or appear to rule out, the accountability that Judge Goldstone calls for, but U.S. wishes may not ultimately prevail. As George Bisharat argues, it's a question of the validity of international law generally — as such other important states than the U.S. could take the lead, making things happen — even to the point where U.S. legal culpability for Israeli crimes may (it seems conceivable to me) be broached.
September 18, 2009
Whose Economist?
Paul Krugman entertains us. For a middle of the road, establishment "leftist," he's better than most in the mainstream and often mostly sensible. But when the rubber meets the road he's, to somewhat mix metaphors, off the reservation. Case in point, his column this morning praising Max Baucus' draft health "reform" legislation. Nobody will remember Krugman's stilted caveats, only that he had good things to say. The problem being, nothing about Baucus deserves praise. Absolutely nothing. From his motives to his method to his manner to his 'mark,' Baucus reeks of corruption. Krugman should know better. And those of us who like to cut Krugman a lot of slack should remind ourselves that establishment economists are often unreliable.
September 15, 2009
Too Much Science
Here's a news item from a couple days ago. It seems that a film about Darwin, a film chosen to open the Toronto Film Festival, a film developed by the BBC and the UK Film Council, a film which has received rave reviews — has not yet been able to find a US distributor due to concerns about potential political controversy. Just too many Americans don't believe in Darwin. They're afraid of anything that might contradict their precious Bible, the "literal word of God." Unfortunately, the fact is, a very large minority of Americans are simply imbeciles. Thank God that between NASCAR, reality TV, the cartoon channel, and shopping at WalMart they're also far too debilitated to cause any real trouble. Nevertheless, politically, the challenge for the rest of us is to work around them, not to pander to them, but that's something that the Democrats apparently have yet to figure out.
September 13, 2009
American Bliss
WASHINGTON — [From Capitol News Network] United Health Provision announced this morning its plans to help build political consensus over health care reform. United Health Provision Corporation, the largest health insurance re-insurer in the country, has teamed up with Goldbug and Goldilocks, the Wall Street powerhouse, to offer repackaged insurance policies to select investors. The Healthy CDO ™ will become available in mid-October; tranches of the derivative will be rated AAA to A, based upon ratings agency approval of standard health insurance industry models. Damien Prisvärt, Vice President for Government Relations at United Health Provision, explained that due to the latitude insurance providers exercise through recission, investors acquire additional guarantees of returns over and above actuarial expectations. Prisvärt predicts that initial demand will exceed $100 billion and expressed hope that eventually all health insurance in America will be recollaterallized. "By making even more money from the non-payment of insurance claims," Prisvärt said, "the industry now will be able to lower the cost of health insurance for average Americans."
September 11, 2009
Delaying the Health Bill
There's something else that's peculiar about the health reform legislation that we may or may not ever have. As currently drafted the reforms don't kick in until 2013 — roughly four years from now. I note this because in a brief email exchange with Doyle McManus he pointed out to me that the Democrats "get four years to tell people that progress is coming without incurring pain or costs" and that therefore their incentives are to pass virtually any bill. I don't agree. For one thing, the situation between today and four years from now certainly will change and without any intervening action to fix health care the problems will be much worse. Are the Democrats, and Mr. Obama, after having dramatically raised the stakes, willing to be portrayed as indifferent to a mounting crisis? As in a kind of slow motion, long-term health/Katrina? I just don't see it, so my assumption is that the Democrats, in drafting whatever final bill they agree, will set things up for immediate implementation. But I may well be wrong.
September 10, 2009
In Search of Doughnuts
When I was a little kid, my family lived in Arlington, VA, in a very small house just off Arlington Boulevard. Down the street was a diner — I remember I said my first word there, "salt" — which had, at the far end of the counter, fresh made in front of your eyes doughnuts. To be honest, I can't actually remember whether the doughnuts there were that good (I suspect they were somewhat greasy), but it was great fun to get them hot and I learned to love the concept of the doughnut. Now that I'm a grumpy fifty something, one of the many annoyances which I'm at a loss to understand is why almost nobody makes edible doughnuts anymore. Krispy Kreme doughnuts? Please... But if you're in the DC area there's still one place to go for traditional American doughnuts: The Heidelberg bakery. Coincidentally, it's in the outskirts of Arlington. The fact that it's run by a German immigrant doesn't matter; Wolfgang has figured out the secret of making doughnuts. When I want a doughnut it's the only place I go. The doughnuts aren't perfect, but they're a solid 9 out of 10. And since the bakery opens at 6:30 a.m. I can get back and forth across Chain Bridge just ahead of rush hour traffic. This morning I think I'll go pick up a bag of doughnuts to assuage my dismay over the health care debacle.
The Mediocrity of Barack Obama
You're to be forgiven if you thought Mr. Obama actually said something. In my entire life I've never seen such a cynical, manipulative, double-dealing speech. After the reign of W. that's almost impossible to believe, but it's true. Mr. Obama makes every argument known to man in favor of public health care, then in an elevated, lawyerly way weasels out. "The public option is only a means to that end — and we should remain open to other ideas that accomplish our ultimate goal." When straight shooters say something they take pains to speak so unambiguously that nobody can misunderstand. But when weasels say tricky things they use weasel words to cover their tracks. Straight shooters never use weasel words. It's an infallible way to tell who's who. Translated, what Mr. Obama said is that the Senate Finance Committee will pass a bill with minor restrictions on health insurance corporations, one that requires all citizens to buy health insurance, that offers a substitute for a public option in the form of "triggers" or "co-ops," and that restricts medical malpractice litigation. The House, he says, will just have to go along with Max Baucus, or else.
September 9, 2009
Compromise, Defined
By all accounts the White House wants a deal, any deal, on health care. Mr. Obama's objective seems to be to claim credit for "reform" legislation, thus scoring (hypothetical) political points. Democrats in Congress seem amenable. But nobody should overestimate the intelligence of our President or our legislators, particularly legislators from the Democratic Party. Stepping outside the mainstream reality show, it looks very much like Mr. Obama is stampeding the Democrats into a compromise that a majority of them don't really want. And if they were a little bit smarter they would ask themselves what happens if a watered down compromise — a give-away to the insurers, drug companies, and health profiteers — is clearly shown within a few years (say by 2012) not only not to have worked but actually to have made things worse? You'd think that this question might be asked somewhere in the public mix, perhaps prominently, but I haven't yet seen it.
September 5, 2009
Supply and Demand
Although mainstream economists prefer to think of their discipline as a "science" akin to engineering it is in fact rife with internal inconsistencies. There is no overarching set of physical rules that connect one individual to another, or to a market, or to a corporation. If anything economics more closely resembles Talmudic law in its efforts to systematize such relations, but it has one modern advantage: mathematics. And at the heart of mathematical economics is its conceit of an individual preference function which can be aggregated into a description of optimized social welfare. Essentially, today's neo-classical economics rings the changes on a tautology: what's good for the individual, aggregated across individuals, is best for society, and what's best for society is optimal for an individual.
September 3, 2009
Things That Happen
You don't really see stories about it in the news, but middle class kids who get cancer have it tough. Treatment is very expensive, even for a family with insurance, with both parents in professional jobs. Often — very often — the costs exceed what insurance will pay; and often one parent will quit working in order to become a caretaker. So what happens? It's quite common these days for a kid with cancer to organize a fundraiser — a race or walkathon, a quilt sale, whatever. But think about this: a middle class kid, suffering from cancer and from treatments, has to beg in an extremely demeaning and dehumanizing way, offering up some salable sob-story, just to pay for health care. They have to put themselves and their illness on the market. And then, of course, there are the poor minority kids with cancer or other difficult diseases (less salable diseases), and they often can't pay, period. It's not the kid's fault that they get cancer. Stuff like that is just part of life.
September 1, 2009
Beware the Walter Cronkite Moment:
George F. Will Wants Out of Afghanistan
By Werther*
Stop the presses: George F. Will has suddenly awakened from his slumber, embraced his inner Cronkite, and opined that being in Afghanistan is not in the national interest. [1]
We take no issue with his bill of indictment against a U.S. military presence in that country. In fact, we applaud the substance of it, even if its publication occurs in the eighth month of Barack Obama's presidency, whereas seven years of George W. Bush's incumbency brought no similar criticism of the latter's handling of the very same war. Likewise, Will has shown no prior reticence about military entanglements; one has only to recall his pseudo-historical feat of justifying the war against Iraq [2], a conflict that lacked even the ostensible casus belli of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that served as the trigger for Afghanistan.
Snow Leopard
It's always a bit dicey to upgrade your OS. But I have a geeky side and I really like to have the latest... so I installed Snow Leopard last night. First, I made a backup of my drive. That helped, because once Snow Leopard was up and running my audio inputs stopped working (firewire connections, various drivers, software mixer controls, it's complicated). For a podcaster that's a deal-breaker. So I restored everything the way it was but just as the restore was almost complete, two and a half hours later, I had a brain storm and realized how to (probably) fix the problem. Starting all over again, after some tweaking and a couple downloads and hunting for 'lost' apps, everything seems to work. In fact, everything seems to work quite a bit faster, including especially recording operations. Whew! It's a bit early to say, but I like Snow Leopard and without hesitation recommend the upgrade. Be sure — of course — to backup your system.
