Reportorial Malpractice
The Washington Post seems determined to set new lows with its imbecilic political reporting. Here's the opening paragraph of today's front page story on health care:
“President Obama's advisers acknowledged Tuesday that they were unprepared for the intraparty rift that occurred over the fate of a proposed public health insurance program, a firestorm that has left the White House searching for a way to reclaim the initiative on the president's top legislative priority.”
It's breathtaking prose, worthy of a golden stenographer's award. But seriously, had nobody at the Post previously thought to ask any administration officials what they might do if the majority of the Democratic Party objected to the administration's abandoning a public option? (Note that according to a recent poll from Indiana University the most preferred option among Democrats — with 69% approval — is the far more radical proposal of single payer.) Had nobody at the Post thought to ask for a reaction from an administration official to Howard Dean's repeated, very widely disseminated affirmation that health reform without a public option is not "reform"? ...Keeping in mind that Dean is a former Chairman of the Party? Which raises a question: what's the real story? Well, here's my guess.
The team around Mr. Obama, if not Mr. Obama himself, figure they can cruise through eight years of making their big business clients richer, after which most senior administration officials will be able to cash in. Some will become mere multi-millionaires. Some will rake in massive payoffs from the financial sector. Even Mr. Obama might be looking at pocketing upwards of twenty or thirty million, perhaps even fifty million or more.
That, and they enjoy exercising power for its own sake.
They figure in order to win in 2012 the most important thing is to capture the middle of the electorate, the undecideds who, according to mainstream wisdom, have determined the outcomes of most of our recent close elections. As far as the Democratic base, the White House figures, "where else can they go?" As insurance, the White House further figures that it will be able to prevent disenfranchisement of black voters in Florida. And with Florida sewn up, the Democrats should win the electoral college in 2012 without breaking a sweat.
There is a problem here, a theory vs. reality sort of thing. If you look at how political science, or for that matter economics, teaches the theory of electoral dynamics, it's all about who moves most effectively to the center. It's a really neat theory. But unexpected things happen when you take your base for granted.
The Republicans, for example, are moving aggressively to capture the center, which, it turns out, is both ignorant and susceptible to vicious propaganda. In the process, however, the Republicans have lost many of their flock outside the South, as well as many who continue to participate in the reality based community. The Republican Party finds itself in a death spiral of its own making. Astute observers, both here and abroad, are increasingly comparing Republicans to a cult. It would not be at all surprising if the Republican Party splits in 2012, running a fundamentalist fire-breathing ticket (Palin/Huckabee?) with a rump group of semi-sane Libertarians and old fashioned Main Street conservatives breaking away.
In that scenario, or similar ones that model a smaller but much more frenzied Republican Party, what would make sense for a majority of Democrats if they were deeply dissatisfied with the Obama administration? One answer would be to just stay home in 2012 and let the chips fall where they may. Another could be to split the Democratic Party with the real liberals taking the larger share, leaving Mr. Obama and the Blue Dogs to represent their business cronies.
In such a four way race the liberals might actually win.
This is, to be honest, not a highly likely future, but neither is it an impossible one. In ignoring its base the White House is playing with fire. It may get burned.
Posted by George Kenney on August 19, 2009 4:03 AM 
« Metrication | Main | Three Card Monte, Washington Style »
Comments
I caught this article too, but looks like you missed the rest of the WaPo story. The same time they are putting this crap on page 1, they're running two other stories inside.
1) Kathleen Parker, "Whole-Grain Health Reform" - Supporters of the public option are anti-capitalism. Her evidence? A boycott of Whole Foods. Kathy fails to mention the anti-trust exemption of the insurance companies, but heck, why bother with facts?
2) Steven Pearlstein, "It's Time to Give Up On the Public Option" - Pro-public option people are the left's equivalent of the right's euthanasia crowd. A choice of policy compared to genuine insanity.
Out of nowhere, three head on blasts, not against the public option, but against public option supporters. As close to ad hominems as the WaPo dares to go. Now you KNOW this sort of thing does not happen at the Post without the explicit direction of the senior editorial staff there.
It's been clear to me for quite a while that the Washington Post has been corrupted as a genuine news organization, but this is really over the top. The Post clearly cannot be considered a serious newspaper anymore. A curiosity perhaps, to be monitored only to see what water they're carrying for their "betters", but little else. Sad.
[Yep. g.]
Posted by: Benedict@Large | August 20, 2009 6:54 PM