Deconstructing the Polls
Notwithstanding Nate Silver's uncanny ability to guess correctly at all sorts of outcomes, I'm very skeptical of poll numbers. In the latest Washington Post - ABC News poll, for example, Mr. Obama's numbers begin to look somewhat shaky. The Washington establishment interprets that as a result of moderate and conservative Democrats, and some independents, breaking away over deficits and government spending. On the surface it might seem to be a reasonable interpretation of the data. As might the establishment's advice, therefore, that Mr. Obama veer to the center-right. But the pollsters have not really looked carefully at or thought about who answers what questions.
It makes more sense, to me, to look at aggregates first. What we see is that there's a sizable minority of Americans, somewhere in the range of 20-35%, who are authoritarian followers. They are impervious to reason, unperturbed by their own internal contradictions, and in search of one thing and one thing only: a strong leader.
Together with the very wealthy, those who live to satisfy the very wealthy, and the military-industrial-congressional complex and its hangers-on, the American "right" has a lock on something like 40-45% of the vote. (The true swing vote — sadly — being then largely poor whites.) Whenever a Democrat polls favorably around the 60% mark, what's happening is that a lot of those authoritarian followers, and independents, are feeling comfortable with the politician's "leadership" qualities. Such high approval really has very little to do with policies.
As Mr. Obama sinks below the 60% approval level what may well be happening is that some authoritarian followers and some poor independents are taking a cue from Mr. Obama's elite base. The former sense that the latter are becoming skeptical about change, but the reasons behind that skepticism make virtually no difference. All that matters is the erosion of a perception of leadership.
Note that this is happening before key sections of Mr. Obama's base overtly turn on him, among other things to tell pollsters that they don't anymore approve of his job performance. If and when that happens, his poll numbers will really crash.
This sort of analysis leads to the opposite conclusion than that reached by the establishment: Mr. Obama's first concern should be to shore up his base, e.g., people who can think about and who care about policy outcomes, keeping in mind that for the most part those are people who have not been bought.
Just my two cents...
Posted by George Kenney on July 23, 2009 9:46 AM 
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Comments
BEFORE key sections of Mr. Obama's base overtly turn on him?
Your theory is very interesting and perhaps accounts for some of the drop, but make no mistake about it, MANY on the left (including myself) are absolutely furious at Obama for his total capitulation (on every issue) to the corporate interests. The nation is hemorrhaging the red ink of corporate zombism, and all this man has to offer is (enchanting) lip balm.
[Well, consider yourself on the cutting edge. There are still a lot of otherwise very intelligent people of a progressive persuasion who won't hear anything bad said of Mr. Obama. g.]
Posted by: Benedict@Large | July 27, 2009 10:42 AM