Electric Politics | Pakistan Lost

Anonymous woman in a burka We're seeing conflicting signals regarding what to do about Pakistan. On the one side there's Ahmed Rashid, pleading in today's Washington Post for more money, lots of it, and fast. That's panic. On the other side various reports suggest that the U.S. wants to enlist outside countries in a push-back against Pakistan's Taliban. RAND analyst Christine Fair coyly writes in the current issue of the Washington Quarterly about how bare-knuckle pressure on Islamabad works. My guess is she's echoing administration thinking. The thing that's wrong with both extremes is that neither considers what really matters to Pakistanis: monstrous income inequality. A landed aristocracy and the military control the economy; most people barely survive, have few rights, and fewer social services. There's no safety net. If the U.S. writes big checks to Pakistan it'll almost all go to the top. Similarly, U.S. pressure on Islamabad registers one way with the elite, another way entirely with the people.

The fact is, Pakistan is a terribly primitive society that's somehow managed, helped by U.S. stupidity, to acquire nuclear weapons. There is no easy way to deal with that reality, no quick way, no direct way, and no certain way. If we try to force the issue odds are the unintended consequences will catalyze an Islamic revolution. That eventuality at least being somewhat clear I've no doubt that U.S. security organs are planning contingencies to take out Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. But as with the best laid plans of mice and men, holding those contingencies open tends to make their implementation more likely — which is what I most worry about. So what if we neutralize ninety five out of a hundred Pakistani nuclear weapons? The five left over could cause an awful lot of mischief.

It would be much better to try to relax, not get too involved, at least not directly, and encourage Pakistan to experience its democratic evolution. Take the long view. We'll have to deal with Pakistan's primitive character one way or another, so we may as well try to be friendly about it.



Home FAQ Contact Archive EP Store EP Alerts © 2010 ElectricPolitics	Pakistan Lost We're seeing conflicting signals regarding what to do about Pakistan. On the one side there's Ahmed Rashid, pleading in today's Washington Post for more money, lots of it, and fast. That's panic. On the other side various reports suggest that the U.S. wants to enlist outside countries in a push-back against Pakistan's Taliban. RAND analyst Christine Fair coyly writes in the current issue of the Washington Quarterly about how bare-knuckle pressure on Islamabad works. My guess is she's echoing administration thinking. The thing that's wrong with both extremes is that neither considers what really matters to Pakistanis: monstrous income inequality. A landed aristocracy and the military control the economy; most people barely survive, have few rights, and fewer social services. There's no safety net. If the U.S. writes big checks to Pakistan it'll almost all go to the top. Similarly, U.S. pressure on Islamabad registers one way with the elite, another way entirely with the people. The fact is, Pakistan is a terribly primitive society that's somehow managed, helped by U.S. stupidity, to acquire nuclear weapons. There is no easy way to deal with that reality, no quick way, no direct way, and no certain way. If we try to force the issue odds are the unintended consequences will catalyze an Islamic revolution. That eventuality at least being somewhat clear I've no doubt that U.S. security organs are planning contingencies to take out Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. But as with the best laid plans of mice and men, holding those contingencies open tends to make their implementation more likely — which is what I most worry about. So what if we neutralize ninety five out of a hundred Pakistani nuclear weapons? The five left over could cause an awful lot of mischief. It would be much better to try to relax, not get too involved, at least not directly, and encourage Pakistan to experience its democratic evolution. Take the long view. We'll have to deal with Pakistan's primitive character one way or another, so we may as well try to be friendly about it. Posted by George Kenney on May 5, 2009 10:23 PM « Site ½ Down \| Main \| Fan Movies » Share this post: Leave a comment Name Email Address URL Remember personal info? Comments (You may use HTML tags for style)

Pakistan Lost

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