Deleveraging
So the Congress starts shoveling money at Wall Street. As expected, the filthy rich begin to steal it — the Guardian reports that $70 billion will disappear in compensation at just a few firms (though this story seems speculative, lacking specifics, and incompletely sourced) — but I worry more about the part I don't understand. The derivatives. Everybody agrees that there are about $50 trillion (that's trillion, with a "t") in mortgage derivatives out there, perhaps a couple hundred trillion in other exotic derivatives. Does it make sense to pretend that none of that has any influence over normal financial assets? Is it possible that most of the money dumped at one end of Wall Street might be skimmed off at the other, through derivatives? I don't know, I'm just asking, since I don't see much if any serious talk about it. If an unwinding of derivatives positions requires a forced sale of other assets, as seems to be happening, it would make sense, as I've suggested a couple times already, for the government to freeze derivatives transactions until such time as there's adequate transparency and regulation in their market. Otherwise the bottom of this crash might well still be a long way off.
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Comments
Sadly, Congress will ignore derivatives because the press has. Whatever the public doesn't know can't hurt them I guess.
Posted by: Oneil | October 23, 2008 4:00 PM
Hi George,
Here's Arun Gupta on Democracy Now (Nov. 7/08) giving one of his reasons why derivative trading should be banned. This is an interesting point I've never heard before. Maybe he would make a good guest on your show.
"And there’s a lot of talk now also about a green-collar economy. I think that’s very important, but one of the reasons that it’s important to ban derivative trading is the investment banks are salivating over a green-collar economy, and that needs to be explained why, because they are—have set up trading desks. It’s estimated that carbon trading, the idea of trading in pollution rights, in ten years will be larger than all energy markets combined. So they’re looking to make a killing off of it. They’ll create derivative instruments, and this will just create another bubble. So we need to be now thinking about clearly exactly what to do to put in progressive ideas and to prevent this disaster from happening again."
Cheers,
Mark
Posted by: Mark Laver | November 8, 2008 1:15 PM