Missing Propaganda
The U.S. announces it intends to leave troops "permanently" in Georgia. The Russians talk about leaving Georgia, but don't. Nose to nose, that's good. Not. After several days we've had time to look around the arena, so what do we see — or, I should say, what don't we see? For all the buzzing in American media about Russia's 'invasion' of Georgia, I'd like to see estimates of how many Russians may, in fact, be in Georgia at this moment. If large estimates of a reliable nature existed I have no doubt they'd have long since been leaked to the media. So where are they, then? To be realistic about it, with a guess off the top of my head, there might be 15-25,000 Russian troops in Georgia. Serious, but not anywhere near an 'invasion.' Actually, if I'm right, that's about what the Russians need to secure the two autonomous regions in dispute. The thing now is to avoid having an escalation of rhetoric metastasize into an escalation of a tangible, deadly nature.
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Some interesting perspectives on the situation from a White Russian friend, and not a supporter of Putin:
According to Soviet Constitutional Law which governed the terms and conditions under which Soviet Republics could exit from the USSR, there was provision for ethnic minorities living in defined political entities, such as Autonomous Republics (such as Abhasia) or Autonomous Ethic Regions (such as Ossetia) to decide, through referendum, their own fate. Georgia denied any such opportunity to the Abhas and Ossetin people, using instead state-sponsored repressive measures to end any talk of rights of ethic minorities. Needless to say, both the Abhas and Ossetin felt their rights had been blatantly denied.
The Ossetins, victims of brutal genocide by the Georgian nationalist government of Noy Geordania (1918-21), were absolutely unwilling to remain in Georgia. Their numbers, about 150,000 in 1918, were reduced by slaughter at Georgian hands in 1920 to the point where current Ossetian population in South Ossetia is still under 100,000. OK, there has been in and out-migration, but genocide is not easily forgotten. Ask the Armenians.
Immediately after Georgian independence in 1991, the Abhas were subjected to escalating political and cultural repression -- their language and media outlawed, mandatory Georgian, public officials and police centrally appointed Georgians. Resistance by the Abhasi was a no-brainer.
In 1992, Chechen mercenaries hired by Georgia (their own army was an utter shambles) took the capital of Abhasia, Sukhumi. Immediately, thousands of vans and trucks driven by ordinary Georgians, streamed into Sukhumi. The first few managed to hit the more lucrative sites, such as stores, government buildings, etc. Most of the rest cleaned out Anhasi apartments, taking furniture, valuables, etc. The Abhasi irregulars drove the Georgians out shortly thereafter. I doubt that the Abhas will ever invite the Georgians back.
Georgian attack on Tsinkhval began with an artillery rocket barrage in the evening of August 8, 2008. These 40 barrel launchers are notoriously inaccurate, and are usually used in groups of 30 to 50 to saturate a large area (1 to 2 square kilometres) with high explosives. All of the rockets land within about 90 seconds -- a highly effective mass terror weapon. Ask the German troops, who were hit by earlier versions of such rocket attacks during WWII. The Georgian rocket barrage came without warning, and was aimed at residential areas of Tsinkhval.
At a press conference in Sukhumi, August 11, 2008, Sergey Shamba, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the unrecognized Republic of Abhazia, said,
"Over the past 100 years, Georgia was an independent nation for a total of 21 years -- from 1918 to 1921, and from 1990 to today. Over that time, Georgia provoked a total of seven wars. On the basis of this experience, the international community should forbid Georgia to have any armed forces. Small children should not be given matches to play with."
John McCain, a Russophobe on par with Zbignev Bzhezinski, recently published an article in the Wall Street Journal, titled, "We Are All Georgians Now". He can be congratulated for his public support of Georgian mass terror and murder of civilians.
Posted by: D Ford | August 19, 2008 6:15 PM