Inflection Point
U.S. and European recognition of Bosnian independence in April 1992 provided the proximate, more or less immediate trigger for Bosnia's civil war. In hindsight, many of those involved regretted recognition as it proved impossible to take back. Recognition, the most serious formal commitment the international system can make to a state, both foreshadowed and foreordained U.S. and NATO military involvement. Had it been withheld pending diplomatic negotiations the war might well have been avoided.
We're seeing practically a mirror image play out in Georgia, not less dangerously due to the benefit of our Bosnia experience, but more so, because this time the principal actors all have powerful patrons. While that balance no doubt delays the onset of war it also raises the stakes by orders of magnitude.
Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia now sets in stone the character of the conflict. Since the contending principles are essentially non-negotiable the only practical path to de-escalation would be a cultivated benign indifference on our part to what happens in Georgia. Unfortunately we're doing just the opposite and appear poised to continue doing the opposite no matter whether McCain or Obama gets elected. The world thus faces an extremely high probability, indeed a near certainty, of a U.S.-Russia showdown.
Posted by George Kenney on August 26, 2008 12:50 PM 
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Comments
Has anyone outside the presidential race articulated a coherent US (and by default NATO) policy for engaging with Russia that doesn't involve dangerous brinkmanship and an escalation of tension?
At the moment there's little to choose between the 'tough talk' coming from both the McCain and Biden/Obama camps. I'm just wondering if there are any other options, and if there's any chance that Obama might see fit to change Biden's tone...
Posted by: Richard
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August 28, 2008 6:34 AM
Good question! In terms of Americans who are Soviet/Russia specialists I can only think of one, Stephen Cohen of NYU. Dimitri Simes of the Nixon Center isn't bad, but on this one he's bending over backwards to find ways to pressure Russia. Several who aren't specialists, like Pat Buchanan and Paul Craig Roberts, have been warning about the risks of confronting Russia but their influence on policy is minimal. Ideally, a strong U.S. Ambassador to NATO would be trying to patch things up but the fellow there now, a former foreign service classmate of mine, Kurt Volker, is an ambitious, amoral type who no doubt drank the Kool-aid some time ago when he was on loan from the State Department to Sen. McCain. I expect he'll make things worse. The question is what will the Europeans do, and there opinion is much more reasonable. If past behavior is any guide they'll probably try to temporize indefinitely.
Posted by: George Kenney
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August 28, 2008 7:06 AM