Snake Eyes
The next real test, the mainstream media tells us, is March 4th, echoing the Clinton campaign regarding the importance of Texas and Ohio. Wait just a minute, though: the remaining states to hold democratic party primaries will choose 1,191 delegates. Texas accounts for about 19% of those; Ohio for 13%; Pennsylvania for 16%; North Carolina for 11%; and there are a whole bunch of other contests. Few strongly favorable to Hillary. On the flip side we're seeing convention fever — state electorates one after the next vying to push Obama over the top. He'll continue to pile up wins by impressive margins, possibly, possibly losing a couple of contests. To put it bluntly, Obama is now running rings around Hillary (shades of OODA) and it's time to call the race. If she had a scrap of decency she'd be looking for the fastest way to gracefully bow out…
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Comments
Yes, I think Hillary is going down to defeat - an outcome I was hoping for. Obama is clearly the front-runner though, and I am very worried.
I'm sure you been following the conversation on Larry Johnson's blog, but this article really caught my eye. It quotes a writer on MyDD saying "Will we risk the confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate who once suggested bombing our ally Pakistan and suggested sitting down without pre-conditions or clear purpose with enemies who support terrorists and are intent on destabilizing the world by acquiring nuclear weapons?"
I have no doubt that the Republicans will make "national security" the key issue in the fall campaign, and the Democrats, as usual, will be unable to change that frame. They will also drag out dirt and pseudo-dirt about Obama and portray him as a dangerously naive empty suit.
It pains me greatly that again the Democrats are going to nominate someone who is unable to hold their own against the Rovian onslaught. I can only hope that someone in the party leadership is compiling the considerable evidence to prove that John McCain, even with his experience, is way more dangerous than the inexperienced Obama.
Posted by: Democracy Lover
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February 20, 2008 8:54 AM
That picture of her will give me nightmares!
Posted by: benjamin777
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February 20, 2008 9:22 AM
Democracy Lover, Obama is a lot more sophisticated and detailed than you give him credit for. His website is as explicit as one could reasonably hope for on Iraq. He is a very smart Harvard Law School grad, who has thought things through, and not some naive preacher or hippy. Just look at how he is running rings around the Clintons, who are among the most sophisticated and ruthless of political operatives. Not just in terms of votes and words but also in terms of money. Hillary blew through $100 million and is behind. So he's a good manager too, something rare in Democrats. He's got many assets. And I even think he wants to do the right thing, notwithstanding that CounterPunch says he's too close to Wall Street. He's definitely the best realistic choice for Pres. By the way, you CAN fight the Repubs and remain a gentleman. In fact, that could be a very shrewd way to fly right into the Oval Office. Americans are yearning for an elevating campaign for a change. And Obama realizes it. He's very smart, both in terms of intellect and in terms of understanding people. And gravitas and charisma are important too in a Pres.
Posted by: benjamin777
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February 20, 2008 9:35 AM
George, please indulge me one more brief comment. Regarding the GOP playing the military/terrorism card, Obama can win that with calm talk and self-confidence, which he has in spades. Iraq is obviously a disaster and a gross deviation from any true defense against terror. The Dems have simply wimped out on this one, because they lack brains and self-confidence and have sold their souls to corporate America. At least we can be sure Obama has brains and confidence!
Posted by: benjamin777
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February 20, 2008 9:44 AM