Flood Predictions

If you're not a scientist and you observe (1) reports of increased ice melting at the poles and in Greenland and (2) the reports, over a period of several years, detail an increase in the rate of melting, then it's entirely reasonable (but unscientific) to conclude (3) the rate of increase will continue to increase. I've been saying for a couple years I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sudden, very dramatic changes in ice melt, but this post isn't an update with the latest news and an "I told you so." What's interesting about new reports of significant ice melting in Antarctica is not that scientists have changed their warnings about potential sea level rise from centimeters to meters, but that it appears they still do not consider a common-sense rule of thumb estimate for an increasing rate of melting, instead focusing narrowly on known melting in new areas. I still think the question isn't about centimeters or a few meters, but many meters, possibly in just a few decades. I'm not a scientist — and, hey, what do I know? — but as a matter of public policy it would be prudent to at least study the implications of what may appear to be an extremely improbable event so as to maximize our options.