A Sensible NIE
If you look over recent, declassified NIE documents you'll find a superabundance of passive voice constructions — making them largely meaningless and/or incomprehensible. Thus it was a wonderful surprise and delight to see that the recent NIE [PDF] on Iran's nuke potential reads in a more-or-less normal, straightforward active voice with only occasional lapses into gobbledygook. Having redeemed themselves with editors everywhere the analysts then deliver the goods: Iran has no on-going nuclear weapons program. Bravo! An honest estimate. And contrary to White House spin, this estimate fundamentally changes the policy landscape. Without going into the whys (use your imagination), what's fascinating to a former bureaucrat like me is how this document ever could have found the light of day.
Scenario one, to be hoped for devoutly, has Bush the younger falling out with Cheney over the wisdom of initiating a new war. Scenario two, bearing in mind both apocryphal stories that intelligence briefings for Bush have been dumbed-down, literally, to a comic book format, and that Bush's press performance yesterday would have us believe he was unaware of and incurious about the NIE's findings until quite recently, it is conceivable that Bush authorized the NIE's partial declassification without understanding the implications. A strong push by McConnell and Gates, perhaps with Condi running some interference, weak resistance from (an ill) Cheney; it was a "slam dunk" as they say. Scenario three, and this is what I'm most curious about, has McConnell declassifying the document but only informing the White House after the fact. An unusual middle finger exercise, well outside the norm for this administration or any other within memory. If McConnell's objective, however, was to derail imminent Iran war plans he just might have violated basic protocol. What would they do, fire him?
Finally, one wonders whether the NIE itself demanded to be (partly) declassified, if it contained sensational, unassailable intelligence.
As with most bureaucratic events the explanation probably includes some combination of the above factors, and possibly others. Whichever, this remarkable document tells us to be watchful for future markers.
Posted by George Kenney on December 5, 2007 1:39 AM 
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Comments
Interesting possibilities here, but how can I concentrate my thoughts when you post a picture of the stunning Greta Garbo, a great actress and one of the most beautiful women of the 20th century?
"Flesh and the Devil" is a favorite of mine, not only for her performance, but for the romantic drama and Clarence Brown's direction. With a black and white silent film, you really had to know what you doing to make it great.
Oh, yeah, this post is about the NIE on Iran, what was that again?
Posted by: pandabonium
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December 5, 2007 3:37 AM
Maybe this is an administration ploy to get the Iranian guard down, as well as ours, prior to an attack. With these guys, it's possible. Anyhow, Bush really BELIEVES the neocon stuff, so he could manufacture some Gulf of Tonkin provocation, like previous presidents.
Posted by: benjamin777
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December 5, 2007 10:17 AM
Helen Caldicott tells a story, relayed to her from people close to Reagan, that cartoon books were also used to brief the then president on certain "complex" matters.
But, I believe Sy Hersh when he says it would be a mistake to think that Bush Jr is dumb.
Funny though, how the "cartoon" imagery is brought out again.
Posted by: Tony_L | December 5, 2007 2:43 PM
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/
Curious to know how you respond to the above article.
I never know what to think with this bunch.
Posted by: mark branham | December 5, 2007 4:14 PM
Probably the strongest, most reasonable substantive critique of the NIE challenges its assertion that before 2003 Iran had had an active nuclear weapons program. It's impossible to prove a negative — so, where's any positive proof? The IAEA didn't find any and plenty of other objective observers believe no such program existed. Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made this point the other day. Probably a good place to start if constructing a "Left" critique.
Otherwise, it's really much too early to draw conclusions about why the NIE was made public. The most prosaic explanation, which I forgot to include above, would also be the most common for a publicly embarrassing declassification: the administration feared it would be leaked anyway, to their even greater disadvantage.
For more discussion at the excellent Agonist, a site friendly to EP, see here
Posted by: George Kenney
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December 6, 2007 10:07 PM