December 31, 2007
2007 EP Survey Results
First, thanks very much to all the 101 people who completed this survey! Quite a jump from last year's 40 — most encouraging. Second, this is a non-scientific survey and besides, I'm no expert in methodology, so if I make rudimentary errors in my general interpretation of results please tell me. Third, I know this is in at least some respects a non-representative sample, because 20% of respondents say they've donated to EP, whereas even among the most regular listeners the actual participation rate for donations is less than 4.5% (I'll work up a separate post next week on donation statistics as part of a pledge drive). Fourth, there's an interesting meta-question, in that responses to the survey remained remarkably consistent throughout the time it was available to be taken. More responses (slightly more than half), of course, came in during the first few days, but participation didn't taper off until Saturday afternoon; all along I was checking several times a day and making notes, and it's clear that on many of the basics the results never changed significantly. Intuitively, this suggests to me that in certain respects the survey results may be more accurate than I otherwise would have thought. So, with no further ado, here are the highlights:
December 30, 2007
☆ EP For Edwards ☆
Not that my vote here in DC matters much, but as a matter of principle there's no way, under any circumstances, ever, that I'd vote for Hillary. And I think Obama is an unscrupulous opportunist — inexperienced, unpredictable. Maybe Obama has greater potential than the others, but making him president would not be a sensible way to find out. Of the leading candidates with any hope of being elected that leaves John Edwards. He's not perfect, by a long shot, but I'm comfortable with him. Actually, more so than I would be, say, with Kucinich who despite having all the right policy positions hasn't got the stones to be president. The fact is, Kucinich isn't running in order to get elected, he's running in order to talk about policy. That's fine. Just don't get confused about it. Minor plusses and minuses for the others in the field; none worth making a stand for on principle. Possibly Ralph Nader will enter later in a third party run but as Sam Smith points out even Nader sees the benefits in an Edwards candidacy. So if you happen to live in Iowa I encourage you to caucus next Thursday for Edwards. And if Edwards should win Iowa I encourage everybody else to help him out in subsequent phases of the primaries.
December 29, 2007
"Uh-Oh"
Considered on its own terms, nothing about U.S. policy towards Pakistan makes sense, nor has it for decades. Any exegesis misses the point. The only critical U.S. interest regarding Pakistan has to do with its possession of nuclear weapons. Now a fact of life, nevertheless we should stop, step back, and think about the fundamental choice we still confront: whether to pursue a global nuclear disarmament strategy or encourage one form or another of unstable, undemocratic, or outright military control over third world nuclear arsenals. It's a choice this administration, mired in depravity, cannot acknowledge.
December 28, 2007
Flying Potlatch
The Saga of the VH-71
By Werther*
Does one American in a thousand know that the Federal government is buying 23 VIP helicopters, each one of which will cost more than the extravagantly expensive F-22 fighter aircraft? A half-billion dollar helicopter — a half billion dollars each! — to ferry political hacks to their campaign events?
If the reader was unaware of that fact, we welcome him to Washington. The helicopter in question, the VH-71, is the government's planned replacement for its current allegedly deficient presidential helicopter fleet. [1]
December 22, 2007
2007 EP Survey [Now Closed]
Please take a moment for this anonymous survey — it will only take you five minutes or so — to help me understand you better and make improvements. Once I close the survey on December 30th I'll report the results, which I think you'll probably find interesting, too. Last year's survey was extraordinarily useful both for programming guests and adding features to EP. Although it's a non-scientific (self-selected) sample, responses last year tracked well with what I already knew from EP site logs and correspondence, so I'm cautiously optimistic that the current results will be reasonably valid. I'm also quite curious to find out what changes, if any, may have taken place in the past year. Thanks very much in advance for your assistance!
December 18, 2007
To Torture Or Not To Torture?
Walter Pincus has been around Washington for a very long time. He's of the old school of investigative reporting; when you read something with his byline you can pretty much take what he says to the bank. (I've never found an error in anything he's reported that I've known about but, full disclosure, his former Washington Post investigative partner, Don Oberdorfer — now retired — was the guy I went to in 1991 when I resigned from the State Department and, after two days of debriefings, it was Don's story on me that made the front page of the Post.) It's worth knowing a bit about Walter because otherwise his story this morning about the spat between the CIA and FBI over the usefulness of torture might get lost in Washington's usual signal to noise ratio.
December 15, 2007
Balinese Backsliding
At the last moment, on the theory that half a loaf of nothing is better than none, delegates to the UN's climate summit in Bali agreed to begin two years of negotiations designed to secure new, non-binding agreements on carbon emissions targets. (For those keeping track, the U.S. delegate, Paula Dobriansky, Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, is one of the most awful, destructive neo-con hacks in Washington.) It would have been better to fail at Bali, leaving some countries free to pursue serious policies, others — to be held to account later — not. This way, however, U.S. intransigence only encourages conniving by others, a form of moral hazard. In two years' time any conceivable agreement will almost certainly be too late.
December 14, 2007
Rumble in the Jungle
The AFRICOM Boondoggle
By Werther*
The government's assaults on our common sense, our wallets, and our dignity are becoming so numerous that one is hard pressed to keep up. The media pivot like a herd of wildebeests from one scandal to the other — from illegal wiretapping, to torture, to mercenaries, to saber rattling in the Persian Gulf, to $4 billion lost at Homeland Security, to $9 billion stolen in Iraq.
December 9, 2007
The Professional
Once upon a time, when Mike Hayden was head of Intelligence in the European Command, he was known for being courageous and open minded. Intelligence collection officers working for him in the field prized his willingness to stand up for them in the face of efforts by other senior officers to suppress their reports. One fellow I know, then a major who worked for Mike, told me he'd never seen anything like it. And Mike's boss, Gen. Charles G. Boyd, Deputy Commander in the European Command, thought so highly of Mike's work that he — as he told me — used it as the basis for his 1995 article in Foreign Affairs, "Making Peace with the Guilty: The Truth About Bosnia." From the European Command Mike went on to command the Air Intelligence Agency, at Kelly AFB, Texas. He remained accessible to those concerned about the situation in the former Yugoslavia, and in particular always returned my phone calls and emails. The details and analysis he provided me were invaluable in my work, and I remain grateful for that to this day. But when Mike got lifted up to head NSA, something happened to him.
December 6, 2007
EP Podcast December/Early January Schedule
So many people are away at this time of year and into the holidays that guest scheduling-wise it's always a bit tricky to navigate. Fortunately, EP's line-up is now set through early January: This week, December 7th, I talk with Quil Lawrence, a BBC reporter (for most of the past seven years in Iraq and Kurdistan) and author of the forthcoming book, Invisible Nation: How the Kurds' Quest for Statehood Is Shaping Iraq and the Middle East.
∗ 12/19/07 One change: I'm switching Dean Radin and William J. Astore, for practical reasons (the Astore audio needs much more ironing out and this week I've got my phlebotomy and so will be too tired), and because on mulling it over it seems to me that Radin is much more appropriate for the week before Christmas.
December 5, 2007
A Sensible NIE
If you look over recent, declassified NIE documents you'll find a superabundance of passive voice constructions — making them largely meaningless and/or incomprehensible. Thus it was a wonderful surprise and delight to see that the recent NIE [PDF] on Iran's nuke potential reads in a more-or-less normal, straightforward active voice with only occasional lapses into gobbledygook. Having redeemed themselves with editors everywhere the analysts then deliver the goods: Iran has no on-going nuclear weapons program. Bravo! An honest estimate. And contrary to White House spin, this estimate fundamentally changes the policy landscape. Without going into the whys (use your imagination), what's fascinating to a former bureaucrat like me is how this document ever could have found the light of day.
December 3, 2007
Moscow Rules
The recent election getting big time media coverage and by bloggers was in... you guessed it: Venezuela. To the extent the mainstream covers Putin at all their story-line concerns his psychology. Edging, of course, ever closer to the official worry that Putin is a new Russian tyrant, anti-democratic, perhaps even anti-capitalistic beneath his manifest enmity towards the oligarchs. Yeah, I'd like to know more about his psychology, too, but so far I haven't seen any reliable sources. What's really important here, though, is what Putin's done. And never mind the mainstream: it's noteworthy that the Left has had nothing much to say about Putin, good or bad. But perhaps the Left should pay attention. Putin put a stop to international "capitalists" scavenging broken Russian fields like a horde of locusts. He had the sense to tell Western "democracy" reformers to mind their own business, eschewing yet another color revolution. He seems disinclined to cooperate with Washington's "bombs away" attitude towards international affairs. Domestically, development continues apace and wealth is finally getting spread around such that even ordinary Russians (finally) benefit. In short, Putin is giving Russian nationalism a good name. And that, I think, is what makes many on the Left queasy — distrustful as good intellectuals are supposed to be, almost by second nature, of anything nationalistic in character. A pity, because the U.S. surely needs a bit more nationalistic thinking of our own.
