Scary New World
Now the IPCC's fourth, synthesis report has been released it's fair to say several things. First, the report doesn't go nearly far enough. This was to be expected as the main value of having the report at all involves its sweeping international consensus, which took time putting together. (And note that although Washington could not avoid signing on, the White House is digging in its heels regarding policy implications.) Nevertheless, while the IPCC dilly-dallied, refining its consensus, the data has continued to march on. Indeed, every new data point shows the problem of climate change worsening, eclipsing, one by one, every scientific prediction to date. An educated non-scientific observer can only conclude that IPCC scientists deliberately erred by the widest of margins on the conservative side. Surprisingly, perhaps, a range of mainstream outlets noticed, from Der Spiegel to the NYT, though their critical analyses also have certain limits.
The IPCC report, clearly, should have been more alarmist. But as Tom Englehardt argues in a recent, quite brilliant meditation on world-wide drought (a must-read if you happen to have missed it) there's very little out there in terms of informed speculation about real world consequences. It's just too unnerving to look into the abyss. What's true of drought, moreover, is also true of such things as sea-level rise, the propagation of disease, global agricultural output, and a score of other worrisome variables. To call global warming a "crisis" severely understates the nature of the situation.
And, third, the IPCC's ideas about solutions are totally incommensurate with the scale of what must be done. Again, this is to be expected, as international institutions have not yet caught up with reality — still, at some point fairly soon we will have to create new mechanisms for international policy. Ban Ki-moon shows some awareness of the urgency required. But it remains to be seen whether and to what extent he, and others, will be able to influence the major players. Whether what we ultimately accomplish will be more a matter of mitigation, or triage.
Posted by George Kenney on November 20, 2007 11:46 AM 
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Comments
Awe, how that hits home. On Maui, kayaking and snorkeling with the green sea turtles at Makena used to be our weekend activity.
Aren't we humans smarter than yeast? Can't we use our faculties of reason to change our behavior? It seems not.
As someone on the oil drum says "the problem will solve itself, but not in a nice way".
Posted by: pandabonium
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November 21, 2007 3:14 AM