Reading Intentions

There's been a small, semi-serious uptick recently in speculation that the US imminently intends to attack Iran. Speculation that may have merit, given the pending arrival of a third carrier in the Gulf region (discounting Pentagon denials that there would be an overlap between the Nimitz and the two carriers already on station, the Stennis and the Eisenhower, with accompanying battlegroups), and considering also the presence of a French carrier group, led by the Charles de Gaulle, and the puzzling if not downright disconcerting fact that a senior US Admiral — Adm. Fallon — was recently put in charge of Central Command, which includes the region. If it looks like a powerful naval attack force is in the works, perhaps one is. Or perhaps appearances deceive.

Lacking super-duper spy technology, to learn more about its enemies' intentions it would make sense for the Iranians to issue a serious provocation. Reactions, or the lack thereof, provide a wealth of information. In this case reactions were, to put it diplomatically, muted. No guarantee that tomorrow won't see an attack launched by Washington but enough reassurance that Iranian leaders should be able to sleep at night.