Dialing for Pentabucks
Perhaps I'm not paying enough attention but the Congress' votes to restrict Iraq funding have implications I haven't seen mentioned, let alone drawn out. Let's say the Tyrant does as he says and vetoes legislation containing restrictions. Then what? The administration has but few options, none good: (1) a number of different funding sources (as I understand it) wind up in the same Pentagon pot, thus other accounts in the regular defense budget could make up Iraq spending, probably for several months; (2) the Tyrant could request non-defense funds be used for Iraq, but that again requires congressional approval, or he could try to secretly transfer funds dedicated to other purposes, which is in fact precisely what happened in the spring/summer of 2002 when the administration shifted $200 million for Afghanistan to fund the pre-invasion Iraq buildup, except that then Congress was compliant, whereas now it is unlikely to be; (3) the Tyrant could seek arcane legislative loopholes — like the 1862 Feed and Forage Act, broadly used in the first Gulf War and several times since — but that would be ridiculous; (4) he uses the veto or signs the legislation while issuing a signing statement that he'll ignore its provisions, in either case spending money on Iraq anyway, breaks the law and sets up a huge constitutional crisis; or (5) he asks for a "do-over".
My guess is we'll move from (1) directly to (5) over the next couple months. But what would a "do-over" accomplish? Support for the war a couple months from now should only be lower, plus which the Democratic leadership will have had time to bring even more Republicans on board. And in the context of further Republican scandals emerging through oversight hearings Republican congressional support for the White House should be weaker. Barring the possibility of totally unexpected improvements in Iraq it seems extremely unlikely that the Democrats would reverse course. Why on earth should they? The political onus is not on them but on the Tyrant, for using his veto to deny funding for the troops. So sure, he can veto a bill he doesn't like, and there aren't enough votes in Congress to override it, but he can't wring money out of a veto. At the moment it looks like he's banking on Congress eventually backing down but my best guess is it won't. It can't — if the Democrats really want to exercise power.
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