Electric Politics | The Great Escape

The Great Escape

The Escape If I had to guess—and this is just a guess—the collective reasoning behind the surge goes something like this: In order to withdraw decently we have to look like we gave Iraq our best effort. We can't make that case now, but a change in declared "strategy" and a short-term ramp in forces changes the debate enough for our claim to pass, if not unchallenged, at least essentially unscathed as far as most of the public is concerned. More importantly, perhaps, it lays the necessary groundwork to preserve American credibility abroad. In the second phase, the drawdown phase, we need to keep our enemies off-balance so that they don't take advantage. Hence a second carrier group to the region and the lateral shift of Adm. Fallon to Centcom. And the seizure of the Iranian office in Irbil (which we claim was not a diplomatic facility). Other provocative acts to follow. By the time our enemies figure out that we're leaving, we'll have mostly left. Anti-war Democrats will just look stupid for opposing the surge; Republicans will be much better positioned for 2008. We'll still be waving a stick in the middle east. End of story. It's enough of a plan to keep senior military officers and diplomats happily beavering away, secure in the knowledge that they're doing the Lord's work. But behind such collective reasoning another set of calculations may well be in play with entirely different, malign objectives.

We know Kissinger has been advising the White House. We know Kissinger hasn't much changed the way he thinks about things in fifty years. We know Kissinger favors the "act like a madman and keep the enemy off balance" approach to war. And we know that before disengaging from Vietnam Kissinger decided to widen that war into Cambodia and Laos. It's a fairly good bet, then, that Kissinger brought his earlier experiences to bear in his advice-giving on Iraq. It's also a fairly good bet that Cheney likes the sound of escalation—which means more war, more profits, more power to the presidency. And the neocons love the prospect of escalation because they believe that by damaging or destroying all of Israel's enemies that Israel becomes safer. What this inner circle of advisors told the Tyrant was music to his ears: We will avoid defeat and even have a victory of sorts. Your legacy will be assured.

An unholy alliance formed again, in a somewhat different, smaller configuration than that prior to the Iraq war, with the additional burden that so far as public debate is concerned over extending the war to Iran and/or Syria, the hawks have decisively lost. Not to mention political repercussions from the last election. This time, therefore, the mechanisms that make war possible must be put into place stealthily, in disguise, with every effort to shift the casus belli onto either the Syrians or the Iranians, or both. It's the opening phase of an "accidentally on purpose" new, wider war.

My guess would be—and again I emphasize that it's just a guess—when the Tyrant was sold this bill of goods it was pitched on the basis of getting out, not getting further in. He couldn't understand the complex interests involved, nor the risks.

If any of the above is even partly accurate, and indeed even if it isn't (to the extent that all the principals are shooting for escalation for its own sake), there's a real risk of escalation beyond what the plotters expect, precipitated in unexpected ways. Act like a madman in the middle east—well, you're going to have plenty of company.

Whether, and when, the senior levels of the military and bureaucratic establishment realize they're being snookered, and what they do then, seems to me now to be one of the most important questions. We should begin to have an answer in about six months or so. The other part of it is whether and how they hook up, or not, with the Congress in making their opposition known. Will a constitutional crisis ensue?

If I had to make odds, and having considerably discounted the prospect for many months I hate to admit it, I'd say the prospect of war with Iran and/or Syria just went from 1:10 to 1:4. Not a comfortable situation.

Posted by George Kenney on January 13, 2007 7:21 PM

Comments

Don't rule out the possibility that the ramp up is for an air attack on Iran and watch out for the possibility of another false-flag attack on a carrier similar to the false attack in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Posted by: Joshua Greene | January 14, 2007 11:59 AM

I'm afraid I have to agree with you here, George. Interesting comment about Kissinger...was aware he was consulting, but wasn't aware of his philosophy of "behaving like a crazy person". Thanks for this analysis.

Posted by: Judy Truett | January 14, 2007 12:27 PM

According to the US Naval Observatory, New Moon phases during the first four months of 2007 will occur on 19.01, 17.02, 19.03, and 17.04.

Look for the neocon fascist madmen false flag pretext on or about any of these dates. 'Shock and Awe' loves darkness. The manufactured pretext will ensure that military action must be immediate, overwhelming and in all likelihood nuclear, thereby obviating a possible time frame for intervention from imperialist-light factions and other opposing oligarchical/military circles. Post attack will require domestic martial law clampdown. Outside of an actual US military coup, it is already too late to prevent this insane decision for war.

As for Iranian retaliation, one example. Launching hundreds of Iranian ship-killing, mach 2+ cruise missiles, even if only partially successful, could inflict the greatest US naval defeat in history to say nothing of blockading the Straights of Hormuz or propelling tanker insurance premiums into the stratosphere thus choking off 40% of the world's oil flow. Who knows what other surprises are in store? Only madmen want to find out. (Look up Paul van Riper, USMC ret., wargames.)

And those US forces conveniently pocketed in Baghdad? Fogitaboudit. Over 90% of US supplies come in over two highways, each ca. 400 miles long. These are more than seriously vulnerable. If cut, imagine US forces trying to fight their way out this entire distance. And that's just to get to Kuwait nevermind transiting out of the Gulf. Iran allowed them in, but if they're attacked, Iran will never allow this US force to leave.

The world is only hours, weeks or months from this historical, pivotal event. The propaganda war is intensifying--hard to believe--and the US-run intel-gathering and subversion and terror ops inside Iran have been ongoing for years. Witness the recent US provocation in Irbil. All bets are off--starting now.

Chances: 1 in 1.

Posted by: tritone | January 15, 2007 4:12 PM

I think GK's analysis reflects well the perspective of a "diplomatic realist". At 4:1 I'd take his bet, at 2:1 I wouldn't.

Bringing the Madman Strategy into the discussion is most appropriate. (Here's a short article on it http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0614-20.htm) Yea verily, our country is blessed that both Nixon and Kissinger consider the Madman Strategy to be their own. The trouble with the strategy is, of course, that it doesn't work for actual mad men. And as GK astutely notes, when you act like a madman in a veritable gallery of madmen it rather dilutes the effectiveness of the strategy.

Regarding tritone's post, I see the fingerprints of the venerable Webster G. Tarpley all over it --the bit about dark phases of the moon, the expression "neocon fascist madmen", the Straights of Hormuz scenario, ... all vintage Tarpley. He would make a superb guest on Electric Politics! He has been characterized as an obsessive-compulsive 911 Truth nut, which is not entirely inaccurate, but he has impressive breadth and makes a top notch talk-show guest (e.g. he was on Guns and Butter recently talking about The [Gerald] Ford Conspiracy.)

As with any analysis the threads of reason, no matter how golden, seldom stand up to the stormy cross winds of happenstance. I cannot get rid of the feeling that something untoward and peculiar is about to happen and it will determine the way the next few decades unfold. In the meantime we attempt to forecast the future in order to plan for it.

Speaking of forecasts, the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists just advanced the Doomsday Clock from seven to five minutes to midnight. That doesn't leave us much time to set odds ;-)

Posted by: Uncle Max | January 17, 2007 7:56 PM

Seconding uncle max, wg tarpley is one of the most informative of that maligned and fractious group that have an interest in 911, plus he has an infectious humour about his message.

Posted by: paul | January 19, 2007 4:41 AM

Thanks for the compliment Uncle Max, however, Tarpley is one of many sources American and European. I agree with Paul. Webster Tarpley would be an engaging, thought-provoking and compelling guest.

Returning to the possible looming USN debacle in the Gulf, Gaffney's article, link below, is well worth the read — indeed, I recall EP once had Gen. van Riper as a guest. Please don't let the Rense site put anyone off, occasionally a useful article falls through their cracks.
http://www.rense.com/general64/fore.htm

And, none other than the Prince of Darkness himself, a.k.a. Richard Perle, is rattling his saber-filled and demented mouth:

“If all options were exhausted in the attempt to stop the Iranian nuclear project, and US military involvement was needed for a successful strike on Tehran, US President George Bush would give the green light for the operation, former director of the US Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee, Richard Perle, told the Herzliya Conference on Sunday evening,” reports Yedioth Internet.
http://kurtnimmo.com/?p=725

This along with recent sinister pronouncements of Dr. Death, a.k.a., Henry Kissinger, can it be seriously doubted imperialism is readying to slaughter a whole lot more darker-skinned people?
http://kurtnimmo.com/?p=724

A must viewing:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/nuclear-bunker-buster-rnep-animation.html

Leider, I'm still holding my cards: chance of Iran attack remains 1 in 1.

Posted by: tritone | January 22, 2007 1:06 PM



Home FAQ Contact Archive EP Store EP Alerts © 2009 ElectricPolitics	The Great Escape If I had to guess—and this is just a guess—the collective reasoning behind the surge goes something like this: In order to withdraw decently we have to look like we gave Iraq our best effort. We can't make that case now, but a change in declared "strategy" and a short-term ramp in forces changes the debate enough for our claim to pass, if not unchallenged, at least essentially unscathed as far as most of the public is concerned. More importantly, perhaps, it lays the necessary groundwork to preserve American credibility abroad. In the second phase, the drawdown phase, we need to keep our enemies off-balance so that they don't take advantage. Hence a second carrier group to the region and the lateral shift of Adm. Fallon to Centcom. And the seizure of the Iranian office in Irbil (which we claim was not a diplomatic facility). Other provocative acts to follow. By the time our enemies figure out that we're leaving, we'll have mostly left. Anti-war Democrats will just look stupid for opposing the surge; Republicans will be much better positioned for 2008. We'll still be waving a stick in the middle east. End of story. It's enough of a plan to keep senior military officers and diplomats happily beavering away, secure in the knowledge that they're doing the Lord's work. But behind such collective reasoning another set of calculations may well be in play with entirely different, malign objectives. We know Kissinger has been advising the White House. We know Kissinger hasn't much changed the way he thinks about things in fifty years. We know Kissinger favors the "act like a madman and keep the enemy off balance" approach to war. And we know that before disengaging from Vietnam Kissinger decided to widen that war into Cambodia and Laos. It's a fairly good bet, then, that Kissinger brought his earlier experiences to bear in his advice-giving on Iraq. It's also a fairly good bet that Cheney likes the sound of escalation—which means more war, more profits, more power to the presidency. And the neocons love the prospect of escalation because they believe that by damaging or destroying all of Israel's enemies that Israel becomes safer. What this inner circle of advisors told the Tyrant was music to his ears: We will avoid defeat and even have a victory of sorts. Your legacy will be assured. An unholy alliance formed again, in a somewhat different, smaller configuration than that prior to the Iraq war, with the additional burden that so far as public debate is concerned over extending the war to Iran and/or Syria, the hawks have decisively lost. Not to mention political repercussions from the last election. This time, therefore, the mechanisms that make war possible must be put into place stealthily, in disguise, with every effort to shift the casus belli onto either the Syrians or the Iranians, or both. It's the opening phase of an "accidentally on purpose" new, wider war. My guess would be—and again I emphasize that it's just a guess—when the Tyrant was sold this bill of goods it was pitched on the basis of getting out, not getting further in. He couldn't understand the complex interests involved, nor the risks. If any of the above is even partly accurate, and indeed even if it isn't (to the extent that all the principals are shooting for escalation for its own sake), there's a real risk of escalation beyond what the plotters expect, precipitated in unexpected ways. Act like a madman in the middle east—well, you're going to have plenty of company. Whether, and when, the senior levels of the military and bureaucratic establishment realize they're being snookered, and what they do then, seems to me now to be one of the most important questions. We should begin to have an answer in about six months or so. The other part of it is whether and how they hook up, or not, with the Congress in making their opposition known. Will a constitutional crisis ensue? If I had to make odds, and having considerably discounted the prospect for many months I hate to admit it, I'd say the prospect of war with Iran and/or Syria just went from 1:10 to 1:4. Not a comfortable situation. Posted by George Kenney on January 13, 2007 7:21 PM « Martial Afflatus \| Main \| Something To Hide » Share this post: Comments Don't rule out the possibility that the ramp up is for an air attack on Iran and watch out for the possibility of another false-flag attack on a carrier similar to the false attack in the Gulf of Tonkin. Posted by: Joshua Greene \| January 14, 2007 11:59 AM I'm afraid I have to agree with you here, George. Interesting comment about Kissinger...was aware he was consulting, but wasn't aware of his philosophy of "behaving like a crazy person". Thanks for this analysis. Posted by: Judy Truett \| January 14, 2007 12:27 PM According to the US Naval Observatory, New Moon phases during the first four months of 2007 will occur on 19.01, 17.02, 19.03, and 17.04. Look for the neocon fascist madmen false flag pretext on or about any of these dates. 'Shock and Awe' loves darkness. The manufactured pretext will ensure that military action must be immediate, overwhelming and in all likelihood nuclear, thereby obviating a possible time frame for intervention from imperialist-light factions and other opposing oligarchical/military circles. Post attack will require domestic martial law clampdown. Outside of an actual US military coup, it is already too late to prevent this insane decision for war. As for Iranian retaliation, one example. Launching hundreds of Iranian ship-killing, mach 2+ cruise missiles, even if only partially successful, could inflict the greatest US naval defeat in history to say nothing of blockading the Straights of Hormuz or propelling tanker insurance premiums into the stratosphere thus choking off 40% of the world's oil flow. Who knows what other surprises are in store? Only madmen want to find out. (Look up Paul van Riper, USMC ret., wargames.) And those US forces conveniently pocketed in Baghdad? Fogitaboudit. Over 90% of US supplies come in over two highways, each ca. 400 miles long. These are more than seriously vulnerable. If cut, imagine US forces trying to fight their way out this entire distance. And that's just to get to Kuwait nevermind transiting out of the Gulf. Iran allowed them in, but if they're attacked, Iran will never allow this US force to leave. The world is only hours, weeks or months from this historical, pivotal event. The propaganda war is intensifying--hard to believe--and the US-run intel-gathering and subversion and terror ops inside Iran have been ongoing for years. Witness the recent US provocation in Irbil. All bets are off--starting now. Chances: 1 in 1. Posted by: tritone \| January 15, 2007 4:12 PM I think GK's analysis reflects well the perspective of a "diplomatic realist". At 4:1 I'd take his bet, at 2:1 I wouldn't. Bringing the Madman Strategy into the discussion is most appropriate. (Here's a short article on it http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0614-20.htm) Yea verily, our country is blessed that both Nixon and Kissinger consider the Madman Strategy to be their own. The trouble with the strategy is, of course, that it doesn't work for actual mad men. And as GK astutely notes, when you act like a madman in a veritable gallery of madmen it rather dilutes the effectiveness of the strategy. Regarding tritone's post, I see the fingerprints of the venerable Webster G. Tarpley all over it --the bit about dark phases of the moon, the expression "neocon fascist madmen", the Straights of Hormuz scenario, ... all vintage Tarpley. He would make a superb guest on Electric Politics! He has been characterized as an obsessive-compulsive 911 Truth nut, which is not entirely inaccurate, but he has impressive breadth and makes a top notch talk-show guest (e.g. he was on Guns and Butter recently talking about The [Gerald] Ford Conspiracy.) As with any analysis the threads of reason, no matter how golden, seldom stand up to the stormy cross winds of happenstance. I cannot get rid of the feeling that something untoward and peculiar is about to happen and it will determine the way the next few decades unfold. In the meantime we attempt to forecast the future in order to plan for it. Speaking of forecasts, the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists just advanced the Doomsday Clock from seven to five minutes to midnight. That doesn't leave us much time to set odds ;-) Posted by: Uncle Max \| January 17, 2007 7:56 PM Seconding uncle max, wg tarpley is one of the most informative of that maligned and fractious group that have an interest in 911, plus he has an infectious humour about his message. Posted by: paul \| January 19, 2007 4:41 AM Thanks for the compliment Uncle Max, however, Tarpley is one of many sources American and European. I agree with Paul. Webster Tarpley would be an engaging, thought-provoking and compelling guest. Returning to the possible looming USN debacle in the Gulf, Gaffney's article, link below, is well worth the read — indeed, I recall EP once had Gen. van Riper as a guest. Please don't let the Rense site put anyone off, occasionally a useful article falls through their cracks. http://www.rense.com/general64/fore.htm And, none other than the Prince of Darkness himself, a.k.a. Richard Perle, is rattling his saber-filled and demented mouth: “If all options were exhausted in the attempt to stop the Iranian nuclear project, and US military involvement was needed for a successful strike on Tehran, US President George Bush would give the green light for the operation, former director of the US Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee, Richard Perle, told the Herzliya Conference on Sunday evening,” reports Yedioth Internet. http://kurtnimmo.com/?p=725 This along with recent sinister pronouncements of Dr. Death, a.k.a., Henry Kissinger, can it be seriously doubted imperialism is readying to slaughter a whole lot more darker-skinned people? http://kurtnimmo.com/?p=724 A must viewing: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/nuclear-bunker-buster-rnep-animation.html Leider, I'm still holding my cards: chance of Iran attack remains 1 in 1. Posted by: tritone \| January 22, 2007 1:06 PM Leave a comment Name Email Address URL Remember personal info? 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The Great Escape

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