What Are They Thinking?

I have no idea, to be honest, which type of explanation is more likely to be true, but if I had to guess it would be the former. A government run by individuals who have repeatedly, unambiguously demonstrated their deficits of moral conscience would, indeed, be apt to overlook the consequences of their actions if they struck out in anger.

On the other hand, to the extent that they have thought through anything we can reasonably stipulate the following: They know full well that the Lebanese government does not and can not control Hizbullah. They know that the Europeans will be unable to suppress their anger. (Chirac has already very pointedly made his views known on the French national holiday, Bastille Day.) And they further know that the G-8 summit will bring the Europeans, hot under the collar, in front of Bush. Unlike rowdy demonstrators who can be kept at a distance, peevish European heads of state in attendance at a summit cannot be concealed from the boy Tyrant, effectively guaranteeing his immense displeasure. And finally they know that the timing of an additional crisis could not be worse, from the White House's point of view, given that both Iran and North Korea happen to be smack dab in the middle of the limelight for prospective punishment, and also that Iraq is not living up to Washington's great expectations.

To me, this all adds up, or could add up, to a serving of fresh road-kill. If the Tyrant likes the taste, well and good, then we can join forces for the next level of middle east escalation. Israel scores points for leading the way. If he finds the dish overly piquant, however, then perhaps the next few (and increasingly dangerous) steps towards escalation with Iran may be averted, or postponed. That assumes, to be clear about it, that the Israeli government prefers not to embroil Iran in a war, that it considers the Iranians distinctly non-Arab—as the Iranians see themselves—and that the Israelis might even hope, eventually, to work with Iran in containing future, burgeoning Arab power. And if the Israeli government pops the fuse on a war with Iran then it can still score points by 'giving' the Tyrant a reluctant climb-down from Lebanon in time for November. Huzzah!

Either way, or for that matter any way that I can imagine, in the longer run the Israeli policy of in-your-face military force doesn't seem to have a winning endgame. In what so many people are now calling 'fourth generation warfare' it's only a matter of time before those under the heel of the boot get their hands on really good weapons for which there aren't yet technological counter-measures. Cruise missiles, for example, that could be built in a garage. The Israeli government's refusal to acknowledge this reality, I suppose, indicates that they are willing to blot out sources of opposition with whatever means may be necessary, including nuclear weapons. The future is so bright I need shades...