Refractory Realities

The Greenland ice sheet melting story has been reported and linked all over the place so you'd think there wouldn't be much to add. But here's a quick observation I don't think I've seen elsewhere. Common sense tells us—or should tell us—if the rate of melting has doubled in the past five years, then given global warming the rate of increase of that melting is also going to increase. (Remember, I was trained as an economist and economists love talk like this.) It's important to understand the simple difference between the melting taking place at twice the rate it did a few years ago and the rate of melting accelerating. Scientists don't like to speculate, nor do journalists for the most part, but as the LA Times article hints at, straight line projections are worthless. Thus the worst case scenario of twenty foot plus rises in sea levels is most likely not only not a worry to push beyond a distant century event horizon but may well be a factor within the next several decades, or sooner. Having an elevation that ranges from one to about four hundred feet, much of Washington DC faces the prospect of turning into beach front property. Poetic justice, I suppose.