Oh Would Some Power...

Part of the decision was made on the basis of existing technical regulations (some boffin must be allowed to say 'but 1.1% can't possibly substitute for 0.05%'). The other, more interesting part involves perceptions: The British did not want to stomp on Iranian toes.

Things have now changed a little bit, but by how much, really? We have the Weekly Standard whining about Iran and the Jerusalem Post helpfully (HA!) pointing out that Bush says Iran is a threat to Israel. So far it looks like a reprise of early neoconnish moves on Iraq. But wait. Germany and France say it's too early to talk about economic sanctions. The EU's High Representative for foreign affairs, Javier Solana (a former Secretary General of NATO, no wimp), says military action against Iran is currently "not in the mind of anyone." In the background, China and India (here, here, and here) have other plans for Iranian oil. Besides, those two have real misgivings about the US push for regional domination of oil supplies, which also implies encirclement of the larger powers outside its orbit. Finally the Saudis weigh in to say that the West is "partly responsible" for the Iran impasse because it had "helped Israel" develop its bomb. Where's the ghost of Metternich when you need him?

Keep in mind: China gets a lot of its energy from Iran and this is only going to increase. Even the NYT editorial board recognizes that our incoherent warmonger-in-chief cannot afford to seriously undercut China's energy security. And that's not even bringing in the India factor, with China and India beginning to cooperate quite closely on their energy procurement strategies. Later this week when Nick Burns visits Delhi to tell the Indians to quit helping the Iranian nuclear program and support US pressure on Iran it'll be interesting to see whether the Indians blink. Most likely they're where the Brits were in September – they'll keep the supply of nuclear goods flowing. Another straw in the wind.

So talks on Iran scheduled in London and Berlin this week begin to seem more an effort to keep a semblance of common purpose among the willing than a genuine conclave on next steps. We shall see.

Several things, however, do confuse the picture, not least Iranian belligerence. But that's for a later note...